Forecasting After a Fashion
Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 47, Oct-17, Pages 15 – 18 Fashion – it can dominate our choices of clothes, music, interior design and even our babies’ [...]
Collaborative Forecasting: Is It Always Worth It?
Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 44, Winter 2017, Pages 5 – 8 Common sense suggests that there will be gains in forecast accuracy if organizations at [...]
When Forecasting in the Supply Chain Gets Tough
Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 38, Summer 2015, Pages 5 – 8 Some forecasters might envy those who make demand forecasts for products that have been [...]
SPIES – A Simple Method for Improving Forecasts?
Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 35, Fall 2014, Pages 5 – 7 My previous Hot New Research column discussed the benefits of including information about [...]
Getting Real about Uncertainty
Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 33, Spring 2014, Pages 4 – 7 In October 2012, the scientific world was shocked when seven people (engineers, scientists, [...]
Come Rain or Shine: Better Forecasts for All Seasons
Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 30, Summer 2013, Pages 34 – 36 This is Paul Goodwin’s 11th Hot New Research column for Foresight, a feature that seeks to [...]
High on complexity, Low on evidence: are advanced Forecasting Methods always as good as They seem?
Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 23, Fall 2011, Pages 10 – 12 Some forecasting researchers love complexity. Read their papers, and you just might begin to [...]
Projecting Success: Don’t Forget the Base Rate
Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 21, Spring 2011, Pages 7 – 9 Suppose that you make an outrageously extreme forecast, such as predicting a quadrupling [...]
The Holt-Winters Approach to Exponential Smoothing: 50 Years Old and Going Strong
Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 19, Fall 2010, Pages 30 – 33 Holt-Winters (HW) is the label we frequently give to a set of procedures that form the core [...]
Why hindsight can damage foresight
Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 17, Spring 2010, Pages 5 – 7 In 1972, President Richard Nixon made a historic trip to China, which had become virtually a [...]